A ccording to the latest economic report on Gabon published by the World Bank Group, Gabonese economic growth, which reached 2.9% in 2024, is expected to slightly decrease between 2025 and 2027, with anticipated growth of around 2.4% per year. This slower progression is primarily attributed to lower performance in the oil sector, high public debt, cash flow tensions, and a fiscal situation that deteriorated in 2024. Specifically, the decline in oil revenues, combined with an increase in public spending, widened the budget deficit, thereby increasing the risks related to public finance sustainability. This trend underscores the urgent need for rigorous management and diversification of revenue sources to stabilize the State budget in the medium term.

It is particularly for these reasons that the World Bank Group is forecasting an anticipated growth perspective of approximately 2.4% per year between 2025 and 2027 in Gabon. Ultimately, the Bretton Woods institution considers this trajectory to also be fragile, exposed to global uncertainties such as international trade tensions and the volatility of oil prices, which could significantly affect Gabon's export revenues.

In summary, according to the World Bank Group, Gabon benefits from economic potential reinforced by its natural resources and infrastructure, but it must imperatively consolidate its public finances and diversify its economy to ensure inclusive and resilient growth in the face of international uncertainties.

Conversely, the initial draft finance bill presented by the Minister of Economy and Finance anticipates a growth hypothesis of 6.5% through a structural transformation of the Gabonese economy, with investments in promising sectors such as energy, water, construction and public works (BTP), agro-industry, education, and health.

These forecasts from the Minister of Economy and Finance leave some observers perplexed, raising concerns about the revenue assumptions, which are deemed too optimistic despite an expected rebound in growth. The significant increase in civil servants' bonuses has also been highlighted, even as the government advocates for budgetary rigor.

In terms of methodology, the Minister of Economy explains that the budget was prepared on the principle of a "zero-based" approach, which signifies a more strategic focus on the country's actual needs, and that the investment budget will be oriented towards high-value-added projects.

Regarding deficits, the government is counting on debt stabilization at around 62% of GDP, but the World Bank estimates that the actual debt burden is higher, including other components like payment arrears.

Through the ambitious draft finance bill concocted by the Minister of State, Henri Claude OYIMA, and approved by the President of the Republic, Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguéma, Gabon sends a clear message to the rest of the world: that of a country which has taken its destiny into its own hands, like a start-up nation aiming to build an enviable Gabon—"Gabon Great Again."